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would be activated, suddenly, the regulatory procedures for approving the sale of MOVILINK owned Movistar, Nextel. The operation was announced in November 2007 and involved the payment of U.S. $ 32 million from customers, infrastructure and spectrum resources of the company trunking. If realized this operation, Movistar would be able to "lose" his leave of spectrum in several key cities across the country: AMBA, Cordoba, Rosario and Mendoza. This hypothetical setting tenure Movistar spectrum would allow to participate in the auction Spectral over from the purchase of Movicom.

Background. In 2003, Telefónica Móviles (TEM) had sold his own company trunking, RMD or Unifón Team, Nextel Argentina ( here ). TEM that company settled for $ 13 million, with clients and network, because he was not willing to invest in the digitization of this tendency. A few months later, in 2003, following the purchase of Movicom by BellSouth, Telefonica Moviles turned to inherit a network of trunking: MOVILINK. In November 2007, TEM also decided to sell those assets to Nextel for $ 32 million.

not so equal. However, the operation was not effective because the regulatory authorities never expressed. Of course, do not know the reasons for the delay. It must be remembered that in 2009 Nextel dropped a Velocom intention to purchase due to lack of official statement on the case. Although the situation now presented MOVILINK Similarly, it should be noted that when cancel the Velocom, Nextel was no longer interested in WiMAX development, the reason I was offered ( here ). For MOVILINK, however, is spectrum in 850 Mhz trunking. While that is a core asset for the principal activity of Nextel, it is known that the operator has its focus on migration WCDMA towards requiring traditional mobile spectrum.

Reasons. However, Nextel would have at least two reasons for not MOVILINK cancel the operation. On the one hand, the purchase will allow you to close the entrance to a potential competitor in the market for local trunking. The issue is not less because there are small operators 2003, after selling Nextel Unifón Team had put the fuss and threaten even to sue the authorities. However, the main reason to buy Nextel MOVILINK would, paradoxically, to facilitate the process of releasing mobile spectrum really interested in purchasing.

Ballast. For local regulation, the spectrum of trunking --SRCE, in the jargon should be added to the calculation of total mobile spectrum cap of each operator. In that sense, he still load MOVILINK Movistar 5 MHz in the AMBA, Mendoza and Rosario, Cordoba 3.5 Mhz and 0.5 Mhz for delineation of the route 9 ( here page 82). Now if you approve the transfer to Nextel, Movistar look that discount the trunking spectrum of CAP. Movistar must be remembered that, after the return of excess spectrum for the purchase of Movicom, has 50 MHz in each of the three areas of the country, the maximum allowed by the rules ( here ). If you deducted that burden would be able to participate - even for a minimal fee - in the competition for the remaining spectrum of the union of Unifón and Movicom.

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The seven largest markets in Latin America totaled 418 million mobile lines at end of 2009, which reveals that there are 87.68 lines per 100 inhabitants, as derived from official figures reflected by the respective local regulators. The registration of mobile lines at the end of 2009 representing a growth of 10.74% with respect to the existence of 2008, a sharp slowdown in the pace of growth in previous years, attributable to the crisis.

worth noting that only Argentina, Brazil and Peru registered a growth rate above the regional average, as the last two was due to be relegated the two markets in terms of penetration. In turn, only Argentina and Chile - the most mature markets - were the only countries that managed to maintain a growth rate similar to that of a year earlier.

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Rollercoaster Prodigal Son

Telecom Italia is reluctant to leave the control of its namesake in Argentina, as ordered by the State. Challenge Courts office from where the case and draws tens of records. So, the outcome promises to be long. Telecom Italia's strategy would stretch the time until 2011, hoping, of course, to have that time with a new political color in power. The government suspicion, despair and threat.

last week leaked the "short list" of candidates, all local. In principle there are three: the trio Eurnekian - Gutierrez - Madanes Garfunkel, IRSA and the Roman Group. I could have one more. The consortium Condor, whose face is visible Carlos Joost Newbery, would be making last-minute negotiations in Rome that Telecom Italia will include it again in the game. Finally, the Government also has the shadow of Clarín.

Theory. Government sources Clarín identified as a possible mastermind of the strategy of the Italian judicial delay. In early February, Nestor Kirchner "officially" that the origin of the conflict with Clarin was his refusal to attempt the Group for taking part of Telecom, the same species had been launched long ago by social leader Luis D 'Elia. Theory

enlarged. Circle also a larger version. The species is narrated that the CEO of Clarin, Hector Magnetto, Kirchner would be exposed to an armed operation that included an agreement with Telecom Italia. The aim was to make Clarin partner Telecom Italia to replace the Werthein. Nestor had to move quickly understand that this meant, at least two problems. The first issue would not resolve market concentration at the hands of Telefónica, owner in the country of its namesake and control of Telecom via its stake in Telecom Italia. The second point: Kirchner would have smelled that the apparent move meant, necessarily, a pact between Clarin and Telefonica. And it would have been willing to provide a center of power for the media footprint. The version heroifica Nestor said that his analysis would have been: better to have them separately and only arbitrate in its long history of conflict. Of course, only be a myth be credible, not necessarily true. The problem is sneaking consciousness as self-fulfilling prophecy. In some government offices that tried suspected primordial covenant between Clarin and the Italians would have been reissued by mutual convenience. Hence the threat of nationalization Telecom launched by Planning Minister Julio De Vido.

falsetto. Rumors Telefónica's purchase of Telecom Italia could precipitate the departure times of the Italians. A Telecom Italia is to resist the arguments fall leaving Argentina. However, there is always a detail. Such an operation would exist in the business daily. Everything would have been a campaign installed by the Italian Government. The move would have been waving the specter of foreign ownership of strategic assets. Fantasy, English sources say, would have been that, by acclamation, ask the rescue of Telecom Italia by Mediapro, owned by Silvio Berlusconi, Italian Prime Minister. Perhaps, Silvio should be regulated in the state of the strategic and punished Italtel ( here.)

Away. Already, three candidates accepted for the final contention for a share of control of Telecom Argentina. Although Carlos Slim would have been tempted in 2009 by officials, would not accompany any of the shortlisted groups; even as a financier. Mexican entrepreneur would, perhaps, an opportunity in the medium term. Especially if clustering between Eurnekian - Gutierrez - Garfunkel Madanes is finally Alzara control of the company. The shooting happened in Eurnekian - Gutierrez in the purchase of assets of Quilmes beer, another operation ordered by the Defense of Competition, is a curious history and take into account when reading between the lines ( here.) And the chances of that trio are high, not only because it supposedly official count with an agreement that would facilitate the Werthein enough to unlock the judicial issue.

Blessing. The Roman Group, led by Alfredo, and IRSA, Eduardo Elsztain also charge him with power ties. Although businesses are known to have no ideology seems that if Telecom would need to have some official blessing. At least, Carlos Joost Newbery, the champion of armed telecommunications consortia to vernacular, have gone through several offices without being able to present their proposal to the Chiefs. A lack of political endorsements, have decided to expose your offer to the press, the figure was the highest among the known and offer for 100% of Sofora, the parent company of Nortel and, by transitive property of Telecom. The move would have been to media Italian shareholders take note.

of shopping. IRSA The case also generated some curiosity. At the end of 2003, Eduardo Elsztain lost their ranks in IRSA Marcelo midline, shareholder and CEO of the Group. Legend has it that Midline have decided to leave by his boss's refusal to diversify investments outside the real estate field. The storage pointed to one of the last business opportunities that would have rejected Elsztain Midline have been advanced on the part of France Telecom in Telecom. A bargain that have used the Werthein. In fact, after divorce, Midline has entered - via its Pampa Holding Company - in business "Regulated" power sector, among others. Instead, the bid for Telecom is the first clear sign of diversification of Elsztain. The amounts involved in the offer made to rule out the idea of \u200b\u200ba wet ear to the former partner.

Optimists hope that the sale to close by midyear. Another kind of optimism lights candles to get no-decisions to 2011.

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candidates with parricide trends with Apples Pears

Slim's family in mid-January proposed a grouping of the two Telmex (Mexico and International) at the hands of America Movil, the company star, born from the rib of Telmex in 2000 ( here ). For reasons of operational efficiency, the move was seen coming from some analysts, but now the forecast boastful (including this server here, here and here.) However, the first steps of bringing together - informal, yet have no regulatory guarantees - would realize that the movement has been untimely. There would have been too much preparation before and now - a month's notice - in the subsidiaries are to calculate savings from efficiencies.

After all, we must not forget that the Slim empire is a (large) family business. Decisions are made in a small inner circle. However, it should be recognized that in America Movil, the least in Argentina, took for granted the move since April 2009. The idea would be exposed only to some large customers, separately. Indiscreetly, I have noticed that all the local business Slim would soon be in your hands. A breach of trust with which they may have stolen Telmex accounts. Do not forget that since Argentina Claro 3G dispute has certain fixed niches. Therefore, Telmex became a competition. And America Movil contemplation with no opponents, even with the "blood." Until then only maintained a forced cohabitation for the realization of certain net investments in common use; ponderous for Telmex's local.

Now, the grouping has forced them to think together savings from synergies in the country. Already have agreed to unify duplicate links and the mutual surrender of traffic "off net". The most important course planned to build a data center itself but now have decided to host their equipment in the facilities of Telmex. And it would be everything from Mexico would call for a net savings even higher.

Although it is technically only a change of controlling, and within the same group of companies, the process would be living as internally Telmex acquisition ( here interpreted ). It happens that Carso, the former owner of the holding was a "metaphysical entity", not operational. America Movil, however, is a telecommunications operator. And of colossal size. Then, the fear of Telmex is based on the duplication of functions, especially in the areas of support. On the case: it is estimated that local affiliates of AT & T, and Metrored Ertach accumulated, together, 800 jobs. After digestion of these companies, now only Telmex remain within 10% -15% of that workforce. They say the clash of cultures upset that (basically, lower wages) exceeded the original compensation. Telmex Argentina currently employs 880 people. Although it is still quick adventure will Operating assembly, some see signs that eventually lead Telmex corporate business forward.

If America Movil seemed to be aware of the movement, until last week in Mexico Telmex still could not believe it. "They were born in our kidney and now we do this," returned from Mexico a mournful voice. Paternalistic, they can not blame Slim. Less passionate opinions analyze the grouping would seek to protect the value of the shares of Telmex Mexico, hit by competition in fixed and unable to salt the fence to get into pay TV. The synergies would come later.

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According to INDEC, Argentina is more mobile than people. In particular, measurements of the body show a relationship of 125 mobile lines per 100 inhabitants. However, the figure is inflated. The principal distortion is introduced by pre-paid, over 80% of life. Basically there are different criteria in defining active prepaid user. In the usual definition is written off prepaid user does not generate revenue (outgoing or incoming) for a period of a month. INDEC, clearly, does not use this rigorously. According to various industry sources, the deficiency in the prepaid count derived that the official base of mobile users in Argentina in 2009 has been in a 33.50% - 35% above their real values. That is, the mobile penetration will be 83 lines per inhabitant. High anyway.

In 2009, the universe of fixed lines in service - cooperatives, entrants and incumbents - exceeded the barrier of 10 million hits, a milestone that has gone unnoticed. Despite being a technology "collective", used by more than one user within a dwelling, usually measured the penetration of fixed per capita. According to this metric, there are 25 fixed lines per 100 inhabitants, much less than the phones. The statement is not fair to the extent that there is usually a family, for example, a single fixed line but a cell phone for each member. Therefore, if the penetration of fixed household is measured, the relationship in 2009 yields 81 fixed lines per 100 households.



words, to do justice to the unavoidable need to compare apples with oranges. Thus, the permanent exhibit similar penetration rate of mobile phones. And with it you can clearly see the roof that have reached their phones. However, this does not mean that mobile phones will come into a plateau. By contrast, the advantage of the mobile is the possibility to have more than one operator in the same terminal through the exchange of SIM cards.

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300

According to INDEC, the base in 4Q09 mobile lines in Argentina rose by only 300 units. That is, in the span of 90 days only joined just over 3 mobile lines daily. This is hard to believe.

The monthly evolution history of mobile lines only recognizes a previous moment of no growth, from mid 2001 until April 2003.

According to the official measure, the existence of mobile lines is stuck at 50.41 million. Between October and December of the year only amounted to 300 new accounts. The phenomenon is very strange because, as the following graph shows, December is a month long bullish on mobile phone sales. Without going any further, to the INDEC, in the same period amounted to 43,300 new fixed lines in service being that it is a technology "dragged its feet" on the mobile growth.



The information published by INDEC is provided by the CNC, in turn, gets the data from the operators themselves. Although official figures on mobile lines in Argentina are very bulky, the report of Indec no explanatory notes on a possible change in calculation methodology. Could happen, perhaps, that some operators have undertaken a process of "cleaning" of its user base. That is, if one of the three users gave low "sleep", the high they could have done the other two resulted in a zero sum end game.

Maybe it's just a drawing.

of December, according to INDEC, had 125.6 mobile lines per 100 inhabitants. So there are more mobile than people, as in Western Europe. That figure, very controversial, as has been the subject of political bombast. However, such a user heap on the floor strip metrics major consumer: traffic and revenue per line. Precisely, although the number of lines is stagnant, call traffic and SMS kept rising. So the average online consumption has soared to record highs in 2004.